Kevin Rudd has fended off a strong challenge and will retain his seat of Griffith, though the victory will be soured by a solid Labor defeat nationally.
Mr Rudd's main opponent for the Brisbane-based seat he has held since 1998 was Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson.
With more than 64 per cent of the vote counted, there has been a swing of 4.3 per cent against Mr Rudd.
That is not enough to sweep him from the seat, however, at a federal level the news for the Labor Party is dire.
The ABC's election analyst Antony Green has called the election for the coalition.
Mr Rudd will speak to the media shortly in his hometown of Brisbane, where he is expected to concede defeat.
On the campaign trail he declined to go into "hypotheticals" about his future - both as party leader and as an MP - should Labor lose the election.