Odds ‘very high’ of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says

WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) – A top Republican in the
U.S. Congress on Sunday said the odds of conflict with China
over Taiwan “are very high,” after a U.S. general caused
consternation with a memo that warned that the United States
would fight China in the next two years.

In a memo dated Feb. 1 but released on Friday, General Mike
Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the
leadership of its roughly 110,000 members, saying, “My gut tells
me we will fight in 2025.”

“I hope he is wrong. … I think he is right though,” Mike
McCaul, the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the
U.S. House of Representatives, told Fox News Sunday.

The general’s views do not represent the Pentagon but show
concern at the highest levels of the U.S. military over a
possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which
China claims as a wayward province.

Both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential
elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China
to take military action, Minihan wrote.

McCaul said that if China failed to take control of Taiwan
bloodlessly then “they are going to look at a military invasion
in my judgment. We have to be prepared for this.”

He accused the Democratic administration of President Joe
Biden of projecting weakness after the bungled pullout from
Afghanistan that could make war with China more likely.

“The odds are very high that we could see a conflict with
China and Taiwan and the Indo Pacific,” McCaul said.

The White House declined to comment on McCaul’s remarks.

DEMOCRAT DISAGREES

Representative Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House
Armed Services Committee, said he disagreed with Minihan’s
assessment.

Smith told Fox News Sunday that war with China is “not
only not inevitable, it is highly unlikely. We have a very
dangerous situation in China. But I think generals need to be
very cautious about saying we’re going to war, it’s inevitable.”

Smith said the United States needs to be in a position
to deter China from military action against Taiwan, “but I’m
fully confident we can avoid that conflict if we take the right
approach.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin earlier this month said
he seriously doubted that ramped-up Chinese military activities
near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of
the island by Beijing.

A Pentagon official on Saturday said the general’s comments
were “not representative of the department’s view on China.”

(Reporting By Ross Colvin; Additional reporting by David
Lawder; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Mark Porter)